Ethiopia: How Long Can the State of Emergency Suppress Oromo Protests?

In Ethiopia, a state of emergency has temporarily silenced the Oromo population, but deep-seated grievances over land, political representation, and rights suggest unrest may flare again once restrictions are lifted.

Near the capital, a farmer secretly made the now-banned Oromo resistance gesture, popularized by marathoner Feyisa Lilesa at the 2016 Rio Olympics. The government outlawed such symbols in October 2016 as part of a sweeping crackdown to halt nearly a year of protests. While the emergency has detained at least 25,000 people, many believe demonstrations will resume once it ends.

Despite administrative changes, including replacing regional leaders, residents say genuine reform has not materialized. People want systemic change, not merely new faces in office. Farmers and young activists express frustration that local leaders are often beholden to the ruling Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has dominated national politics since 1991.

Land disputes remain a particularly sensitive issue. State-driven development and corruption have displaced Oromo families, especially around Addis Ababa, with minimal compensation. Farmers near Guder town fear the ongoing trend of selling peri-urban land to developers, enriching officials while locals lose livelihoods. Beyond land, citizens seek improved roads, electricity, and water, yet Ethiopia continues to rank low on the UN Human Development Index.

Historical and ethnic grievances, coupled with the lack of political avenues, intensify the risk of renewed protests. Oromo activists abroad highlight systemic inequities, including the perception that the Tigrayan elite disproportionately benefit from governance. Arrests of opposition figures like Merera Gudina underscore the risks for dissenting voices.

Although some officials, such as federal communications minister Negeri Lencho, call for increased civic awareness and grassroots reform, most analysts see little chance for dialogue. Blogger Zelalem Kibret notes that the EPRDF’s monopoly on political power—controlling federal, regional, and local councils—renders opposition parties ineffective and confines public dissent to sporadic demonstrations that can be easily suppressed.

With widespread frustration, unresolved ethnic and land issues, and a dominant ruling coalition, Ethiopia faces a tense impasse. While the state of emergency has temporarily curbed protests, structural grievances suggest the underlying discontent among the Oromo population remains unresolved, and future unrest is likely once restrictions ease.