Modifiable risks drive over half of Africa’s NCD deaths
Un examen de données du GBD 2023 place cardiopathies, AVC et maladies rénales en tête des décès, et l’Africa CDC appelle à une réponse continentale.
By
Kwame Asante
In brief
- NCDs make up a growing share of the continent’s health burden, according to a 2026 Lancet Global Health analysis.
- Cardiovascular conditions head the list of killers, ahead of chronic kidney disease and diabetes.
- Raised blood pressure, diet and air pollution are the biggest contributors, and all three can be modified.
- Africa CDC has built NCDs into its 2023 to 2027 strategic plan and runs surveillance and mental health programmes.
Heart disease, stroke, kidney disease and diabetes now sit at the centre of Africa’s health picture rather than at its edge. A 2026 analysis in Lancet Global Health, drawing on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data, finds that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for a growing share of the continent’s health burden. The findings were relayed by allAfrica, which reproduced Africa CDC’s account of the study.
The scale of the burden in 2023
The study gauges illness with the disability-adjusted life year, or DALY. One DALY stands for one year of healthy life lost, whether through early death or through living with a disabling condition. Counting this way gives a single yardstick for very different diseases, so a stroke and a long spell of diabetes can be set side by side.
The number of cases dwarfs the number of deaths because many of these conditions are lasting ones, lived with over long periods before, in some people, they turn fatal.
Which diseases kill most
Five NCDs head the mortality ranking for 2023. Two of them, ischaemic heart disease and stroke, sit at the top, and a third cardiovascular condition, hypertensive heart disease, also makes the list. Kidney disease and diabetes complete it.
| Rank | Cause of death | Deaths in 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ischaemic heart disease | 801,000 |
| 2 | Stroke | 700,000 |
| 3 | Chronic kidney disease | 293,000 |
| 4 | Hypertensive heart disease | 246,000 |
| 5 | Diabetes | 245,000 |
Risks that can be changed
Three factors contribute most to NCD deaths. Elevated systolic blood pressure leads at 26.2%, followed by dietary risks at 14.7% and air pollution at 14.2%. These are modifiable risk factors, and together they explain more than half of all NCD deaths in the analysis.
That is why the study speaks of substantial openings for prevention. It names healthier diets, lower exposure to polluted air, detection and treatment at an earlier stage, and stronger health-system responses. Because blood pressure tops the ranking, the reach of screening and ongoing care matters alongside individual habits.
Africa CDC and the call for a continental response
Dr Mohammed Abdulaziz, who heads the Division of Disease Control and Prevention at Africa CDC, is among the study’s authors. He says the results reinforce the urgency of Africa CDC taking the lead in a coordinated, continent-wide response to the growing burden of NCDs, injuries and mental health conditions.
The agency’s framework, as described in the report, has several layers:
- Its second strategic plan, running from 2023 to 2027, contains a pillar on integrated health systems for preventing and controlling high-burden diseases, NCDs included.
- Its NCDs, Injuries and Mental Health Division works with member states and partners to turn evidence and continental commitments into action, including through MECA, the African Union’s common position on multisectoral engagement, coordination and action.
- Surveillance and the use of data are being reinforced through SPARK-NCDs, a programme on public health surveillance and knowledge for NCDs in Africa.
Two further programmes round out the portfolio: a continent-wide effort on sickle cell disease and other inherited blood disorders, and the Africa Mental Health Leadership Program, which targets mental health systems, leadership and workforce capacity. The allAfrica report presents these initiatives together as support for prevention, stronger health systems and progress towards healthier populations.
Photo: Thirdman / Pexels
