Economic Growth Fuels Hope for Peaceful Elections in Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara believes the country’s strong economic performance will help prevent political tensions from escalating ahead of the upcoming October 25 presidential election, in which he is widely expected to win. He argues that better living conditions reduce social stress and the likelihood of citizens being manipulated into conflict.

Following the violent aftermath of the 2010 election—which left around 3,000 people dead after former president Laurent Gbagbo refused to relinquish power—Ouattara has focused on economic reforms. The country, now the world’s largest cocoa producer, has recorded an average 9% annual growth over the past three years, attracting renewed foreign investment and remaining resilient despite global commodity price crashes.

Ouattara highlights progress in improving rural livelihoods, particularly through reforms ensuring cocoa and cashew farmers receive a larger share of revenue. Investments in power infrastructure and access to clean water are also cited as key achievements contributing to national reconciliation.

However, political divisions remain. Gbagbo, who won 46% in the 2010 runoff, still commands substantial loyalty while awaiting trial at the International Criminal Court for post-election violence. Opposition candidate Pascal Affi N’Guessan faces internal rebellion from Gbagbo loyalists who plan to boycott the election, leaving the opposition fragmented and voter enthusiasm reportedly low.

Analysts note that while the upcoming election is likely to proceed peacefully, the greater challenge lies in the 2020 presidential transition, when Ouattara’s second and final term ends. Ivory Coast has historically struggled with peaceful political succession.

Recent clashes in the western cocoa-producing region, where one person was reportedly killed, underscore the lingering potential for localized violence.